Prediction of Andrea Collarini vs Mariano Kestelboim at Florianopolis Challenger 11-18-25

• Andrea Collarini shows stronger recent form on second serve points, winning 45.76% compared to Mariano Kestelboim's 40.78%. Is this statistic a reliable indicator for predicting match winners? Generally, yes.
• In recent return games, Collarini holds an edge with 49.35% of opponent's second serve points won, whereas Kestelboim is slightly weaker at 44.74%. On first serve returns, however, Kestelboim prevails with 33.00% compared to Collarini's 31.11%.
• Under pressure, Andrea Collarini saves 52.34% of breakpoints, narrowly outperforming Mariano Kestelboim, who saves 49.83%.
• While Collarini has won 53.62% of matches over the past year, Kestelboim has a better win rate at 59.09%. Who does this suggest might be favored here? Kestelboim has a slight advantage overall.
• Both players excel on clay, boasting a 59% win rate. They differ, however, on their weakest surfaces, with Collarini underperforming on grass and Kestelboim on indoor hard courts.
• Within the Challengers/ITF tournaments > $10K, Collarini has won 54.39% of matches this year, while Kestelboim edges him out again with 54.90%.
• Andrea Collarini has a slight historical edge in head-to-head match-ups, winning 2 out of 3 meetings and leading in sets, 5-2.
• Opposing higher-ranked players, Collarini faces an average rank of 300.81 compared to Kestelboim’s average opponent rank of 373.71.
• In matches that reach a deciding set, Kestelboim has proven more successful, winning 60% of these match-ups compared to Collarini's 46%.
• Mariano Kestelboim's breakpoint conversion stands at 44.52%, bettering Collarini's 36.67%, potentially significant in key match moments.

Editorial Prediction (November 17, 2025, UTC):

The upcoming match between Andrea Collarini and Mariano Kestelboim promises a competitive showdown, with both players demonstrating particular strengths in different areas.

While Collarini showcases a stronger second serve and return on the opponent’s second serve, Kestelboim counters with a slightly better first serve return and break point conversion rate.

Their historical match-ups also add intrigue, with Collarini leading head-to-head victories. However, Kestelboim’s superior performance in deciding sets could prove crucial if the match extends to a decider.

Collarini's tendency to face higher-ranked opponents might indicate resilience in tougher challenges, but Kestelboim’s overall recent form and percentages position him as a slight favorite.

Overall, while Collarini boasts several strengths, Mariano Kestelboim's consistent play, particularly in pressure situations, suggests he is the player with a slight edge going into this match.